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So I've been thinking

...about the last episode of Sherlock. And having read a few ideas of other people I've come up with the following theory about how it was done.

The episode is full of tiny details that are easily overlooked. I totally failed to spot that there was briefly a rubbish truck parked at the foot of the building. It then disappears. It's on screen for a scant couple of seconds.

There's also the scene where he first encounters the girl. Why would she scream if she's never met him before? Except maybe she has. Or maybe she's met someone who looks very much like him. Now it seems to me that what happens, is that some how he gets hold of this doppleganger. And it's him that we see lying in a pool of blood.

Molly is crucial in this plan. I found it odd at the time that Moriaty was only planning on killing just 3 of his friends. Why wouldn't he kill Molly? Because he doesn't know that Molly and Sherlock are friends? And since his knowledge of who Sherlock is friends with comes from Mycroft, that means that it's concievable that Mycroft was in on the plan too and that it stretches back far further than we could possibly begin to imagine.

So Sherlock arranges to meet with Moriaty on top of the hospital, whilst Molly lures away Watson, arranges for the rubbish truck to end up parked at the foot of the building where she waits with the dead doppleganger. Now I'm not sure if Watson was expected to come back. Sherlock does seem a little surprised to see him. But he then ensures to position him so that there's a low building inbetween him and where the truck is parked. Although Watson's assassin is setting himself up outside the hospital, so maybe it is all planned?

Anyway. Sherlock gets Watson to stand in just the right spot to witness him jumping off, but not see him land. He jumps and lands in the rubbish truck. Molly pushes the doppleganger's corpse out so that it's sprawled on the pavement and the truck drives off. Watson arrives in time to find a crowd of medical types clustered around the body and is only really given a short amount of time to even see that it's Sherlock or not.

I think the cyclist was a random event. Moriaty's own death is a bit odd. Possibly he realises that Sherlock is like him in the sense that he's not afraid of getting his hands dirty. After all, that doppleganger had to die somehow. And Moriaty couldn't have done it or he'd risk it being discovered and someone going "Hey, that looks just like Sherlock". Which might have caused a few too many unanswered questions.

The code part of the plot was very silly. I have to hope that Sherlock was stringing Moriaty along by believing in it. The assassins sent to live nearby, I'm guessing, is Moriaty's way of ensuring that Sherlock lives long enough for his downfall? But who else is gunning for him to put him at such risk? Maybe that's something/one we'll encounter in season 3?

Comments

I don't think the cyclist was random. He collided with Watson to make sure Watson didn't make it to the body first.

It is possible it was planned, but he could have just placed Watson further away. And it was very risky if it was planned - the cyclist hits Watson and could have injured him much worse than what he did.

There was also a section of the building pretty much directly beneath where he steps off, which has a flat roof a storey or two up from ground level - the whole fall may have been difficult to survive, but if the flat roof was pre-prepped, he could perhaps have actually begun the fall (Watson sees it, but can't follow him all the way down because of the cyclist), land on the flat roof, and then the substitute body is pushed groundwards before Watson can arrive. The substitute body probably has to be close to hand, but not /on/ the roof beforehand, so storing it on that second piece of roof could make sense - Sherlock called the location, so had time to set up the scene, but Moriaty was there when he arrived, so would has had time to check the rooftop for anything too visible.

It's not a perfect theory by any means - can you guarantee someone landing in a stunt like that will immediately be able to get up uninjured & hurl a body? Well, maybe in cinematic land you can... ;) - and how do you hide the planned landing site from Moriarty? Something as simple as grey tarpaulins, and rely on a combination of distance & disinterest when given the opportunity to monologue?

There's still the issue of where such a doppelgänger would come from, and how you make a corpse (which one must assume you've known about/had in hand for some time, since it's the linchpin of this plan working) appear to be very freshly dead, enough to fool an experienced doctor (who, let us not forget, is ex-army, and has therefore had rather a lot more experience of sudden deaths than your average GP - he may be distraught, but he's not daft)

The section of building you're refering to is across the road, not below where Sherlock jumps from. You can see that because when they look over the edge, they can see pavement and people walking below - Moriaty even comments that Sherlock will have an audience. Moriaty wouldn't let him fall from there if it wasn't straight onto the pavement. It's also visible from google maps too.

The crux of the plan is Molly. Molly has the skills to make the body look like it's just taken a fall. She's the only one of Sherlock's friends not to be targeted by Moriaty, so she has complete freedom of movement. She arranges for the rubbish truck to park up below the jumping point at some pre-arranged signal. Sherlock lands in the bag on top of the bags, thus preventing most of the injuries. Molly also has time to place the body too. And she arranges for some of her medical friends to be in the area to rush towards the body to examine it and help keep Watson away.

And as I said - the doppleganger is the one that Moriaty uses to traumatise the girl, so that she screams when she sees Sherlock.

"Molly is crucial in this plan. I found it odd at the time that Moriaty was only planning on killing just 3 of his friends. Why wouldn't he kill Molly? Because he doesn't know that Molly and Sherlock are friends?"

Er, back in season 1 didn't Moriarty turn up as Molly's boyfriend ? Something he did exactly to get at Sherlock in some way, so he definitely knew about her.

Which is why it's so odd. If anything I'd say that she was more of a friend to him (she does fancy him) than Lestrade.

I suspect the code thing was for the assassins' benefit rather than Sherlock's - Moriarty wanted Sherlock kept alive, so tricked a bunch of international criminal types into believing that he had the key, and needed to be kept alive.

I missed the rubbish truck, and the doppelganger idea does make a certain amount of sense. Time will tell, I guess.

I missed the rubbish truck the first time, but I went back and rewatched that scene. It really is a "blink and you'll miss it" thing though. It's almost like it's a continuity gaff. But it makes sense that it drives off once Sherlock is in the back of it.

I didn't spot the rubbish truck, other than there was a truck there. I think the truck was just a movable wall that stopped Watson from seeing him land.

Instead I think that Sherlock jumps into a blanket held out by the medical types and other "passers-by". They're all in on it.

The cyclist is there to slow Watson down, as are the other passers by who slow him down and keep Watson away, in time for the drug (that stops his pulse from being detected) to work.

If a doppleganger had been used, they'd have had to "warm up" the corpse, and it would mean killing someone, and I don't think Holmes would really want to kill someone just to prevent Moriarty.

Someone mentioned something about a rubberball that could be used to slow down/stop pulse too...possibly in the episode, but I don't remember it?

I think Sherlock possibly could kill someone if it's to save the people he cares about. After all, he might work for/with the Angels, but he's not an Angel. I think that is why Moriaty saw a kindred spirit in him, where as before he thought he was mundane and ordinary.

Oh and the "movable wall" is an actual building. Check out the google map link I posted a few comments up.

A very good cliff hanger :)